Annotation. Geopolitical factors affecting the economy, the modern geopolitical situation and the consequences of its changes on the economy are investigated in the paper. Geopolitical factors are considered: geographical, economic, political, technological, military, demographic, scientific, educational, cultural-sports, ethnic and religious. At the modern stage, the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war had the biggest impact on the geopolitical situation in the world. As a result of these two events: the growth rates of the world economy decreased; The solution of joint global problems has been hindered; An energy, food, supply chain (during a pandemic), humanitarian and, in general, geopolitical crisis with far-reaching consequences has formed.

Keywords: geopolitics, pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war 

Introduction 

Geopolitics studies the relationship between space (in all meanings of this word) and politics (Napoleon Bonaparte said: "The key to the politics of states lies in geography"), how the space factor affects politics and the activities of political figures. Its formation at the turn of the XIX-XX centuries is connected with the expansion of the range of geographical sciences. It was during this period that the first geopolitical currents were formed, especially in those countries that had a dominant position on the seas (USA, England). It is closely related to a wide range of other social sciences, including economic science. Global geopolitics changes over time and a new geopolitical situation is formed. For example, the Second World War completely changed the geopolitical situation. The Potsdam era of geopolitics has begun in 1945. A treaty was signed at a round table in the small town of Potsdam near Berlin, thus defining a new balance of power. The mentioned system defined new borders and new geopolitical spheres. In fact, at Potsdam it became clear that the world had moved from a multipolar system to a bipolar system: the USSR and its allies, which were the continental power, and the US and its allies, which were the naval power. The opposition between these two blocs developed during the Cold War. At the end of the 80s of the last century, the geopolitical order seemed stable, but the 90s showed that there is no guaranteed geopolitical status [Gorgiladze 2009]. In 1992, together with the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Potsdam system of the world also collapsed. The world has become unipolar. The United States of America was the undisputed leader, but today the picture is emerging of the unipolar world becoming multipolar. In particular: the international influence of the European Union, as well as China, Russia, Japan and India is growing. 

The impact of geopolitics on the economy 

The change in geopolitics has a great impact on both the world society and the world and national economies, since at this time the spheres of influence of different countries (developed and the most powerful developing countries) are being redistributed. It affects the investment market, international trade and other areas of the economy. The main geopolitical factors affecting the global and national economies can be distinguished:

1. Geographical: location of the country, size of the territory and borders; natural conditions (weather, climate); rivers, open to the sea; Natural resources (minerals, oil, natural gas, forest, agricultural fields, etc.);

2. Political: Politics is a combination of the Greek words "polis" (city-state) and "techné" (science) and means the science of state management. In the words of Machiavelli, "Everything is not politics, but politics is interested in everything." It includes: state structure (political regimes), social structure of society, issues of arrangement and interdependence of state bodies, political ideologies, economic, social, cultural spheres, foreign relations of the country, defense strategies, domestic and foreign policy and many other issues;

3. Economic: - type of market economy; level of economic development (developed and developing countries); level of social security; foreign economic relations;

4. Technological: level of development of innovative, networked, "green" and "circular" economy;

5. Military: military defense capability and security; participation in military alliances;

6. Demographic: number of population, population density and structure, birth rate, life expectancy;

7. Scientific: organization of science, level of its development, results of scientific research and their transfer;

8. Educational: the education system and its effectiveness, how far it responds to the requirements of economic development and education of highly qualified personnel;

9. Culture and sports: the level of development of culture and sports has a great influence on the image and economy of the country

10. Ethnic: origin of the nation, protection of ethnic minority rights;

11. Religious: Different religions and related traditions and customs and behaviors greatly influence the governance and politics of the country;

12. Global threats: depletion of resources, natural disasters, ecological disasters, accumulation of environmentally dangerous technologies, increase in armaments, wars and others.

Among the geopolitical factors, geographical is the main one. These are the most stable, primary parameters that determine the state of the wave from the moment of its formation. The rest of the factors are secondary, as they are determined by the domestic and foreign policy of the state and also largely depend on the country's geographical attributes [Геополитические... 2023]. 

Contemporary geopolitical situation in the world 

Geopolitical arrangements change over time. The United States of America has been the undisputed leader in the post-Communist camp since the World War, but today the contours of the unipolar world becoming multipolar are being drawn. In particular: the international influence of the European Union, as well as China, Russia, Japan and India has increased.

At the modern stage, the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war had the biggest impact on the geopolitical situation in the world.

Pandemic economic problems arise during the massive spread of infectious diseases worldwide, due to the implementation of prohibitive measures by governments to protect people. Restrictions on economic activities in the economy lead to the limitation of market mechanisms, partial or complete cessation of the operation of enterprises, which is followed by economic decline, deterioration of the well-being and comfort of a large part of society. The impact of the pandemic on the economy can be called a pandemic shock of the economy.

Of course, managing a pandemic shock is different from an economic one. For example, if during the financial crisis, first of all, large banks were saved, during the pandemic, micro, small and medium-sized enterprises were saved: small shops, hotels, restaurants, fast food, beauty salons, ateliers, bars, cafes, travel companies, etc. Self-employed, representatives of creative and many other fields remained almost without income. During the pandemic, the importance and scale of those areas of the economy that are directly related to people's life and health (food supply, medicine, pharmacy system, trucking, online trade, online learning, remote work, etc.) increase. The pandemic has shown us how important it is to develop both the medical system and agriculture, the former as life and health, and the latter as food security.

Although the economic recession was caused by the pandemic, it gradually acquired a purely economic character (increase in unemployment and poverty, inflation, currency depreciation, reduction of national human capital, savings, domestic and foreign investments, remittances from abroad, etc.), which gradually spread. on the whole economy and the pandemic shock turned into a rather deep economic crisis. However, fluctuations during the pandemic are relatively balanced, as government restrictions reduce both aggregate demand and aggregate supply. The decrease of the first due to job losses, increase in human needs and reduction of purchases by firms, and the second - due to the stoppage or curtailment of production. Also, the government helps both the consumer and the supplier, thereby reducing the negative impact of the pandemic shock. It can be said that the macroeconomic equilibrium was achieved by the publication, but not the macroeconomic stabilization. Macroeconomic stabilization has come relatively easily after the pandemic has largely subsided.

Globalization has many positive aspects, but it also has negative aspects. For example, a negative process originating in one country can quickly spread throughout the world. It was the outbreak of the epidemic that originated in China that took place in the world. The pandemic is a global problem. But, it is not a direct result of globalization. It accelerates the spread of the infection, but the pandemic is more a feature of the infection itself. It spread throughout the world even when the level of not only globalization but also international economic relations was insignificant. Despite the rich experience of pandemics, the world was still very unprepared for the coronavirus pandemic, not in terms of medicine, but in terms of the global fight against it. The world could not find the necessary funds to extinguish the epidemic. This is due to the fact that the level of economic globalization precedes the level of political globalization. In case of political readiness, the level of economic globalization today allows the world to act instantly during such infections. To eradicate it in the center of its origin with common forces or to strongly limit the area and extent of its spread, not to allow the epidemic to develop into a pandemic.

The situation showed us that individual countries were in the role of spectators or acted independently. However, it is impossible to eliminate the pandemic without joining forces. The self-isolation of the countries gave rise to certain anti-globalist views, however, it is necessary to act on the contrary. It is necessary to create an international organization with the participation of all countries (together with the World Health Organization), which will quickly respond to epidemics, implement appropriate measures worldwide and prevent its spread to other countries. There should be an appropriate fund to ensure this. The world must be ready to protect itself from new infections. There were opinions that after the coronavirus pandemic, the level of globalization would decrease, countries would choose a protectionist policy, a policy of self-sufficiency, which was wrong, as it would lead to global problems (human life and health, poverty alleviation, war and peace, depletion of natural resources, food security, climate change, ecological, problem of space and ocean utilization and others) will reduce the possibilities of solutions, cut off the economy in all countries, reduce the income and, accordingly, the expenses on scientific researches, innovations, in the final report, hinder the economic development all over the world. There is no alternative to globalization [Abesadze R. 2020]. History has shown that despite geopolitical differences, no country or region of the world can achieve sustainable economic development alone. Therefore, global integration continues to flourish [В МФМ… 2023].

The world had not recovered from the consequences of the pandemic when the war started in Ukraine, which hampered the post-pandemic recovery processes and gave rise to new ones.

It is true that the war is taking place directly between Russia and Ukraine, but almost all states are involved in it in various ways (supply of weapons, humanitarian aid, reception of refugees, imposition of sanctions, etc.), therefore, this war has a global character to some extent and, naturally, it has a great negative impact, both at the world and national level, on all spheres of human activity, first of all, on the economy.As a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine: both Russia and Ukraine were economically weakened, and Europe and the United States faced problems; The number of NATO rapid response forces increased from 40 to 300 thousand soldiers and its defense costs increased significantly; Applications for joining the alliance were submitted by Sweden, Finland, Ukraine and the Republic of Kosovo; the European Union announced deeper integration into NATO; The transition of the world economy to renewable energy sources was accelerated, followed by a significant weakening of Russia's role in the global energy market; Ukraine, Australia, New Zealand, the USA, the European Union and Canada have embargoed Russian energy, while Japan and Taiwan have refused to buy Russian coal; The USA and the European Union imposed sanctions on Russia, although it did not lead to significant changes on the frontline, nor did Russia's economic parameters change significantly; Sweden and Finland (joined NATO on April 4, 2023), which maintained a neutral status and abstained from NATO membership, officially submitted applications for joining the alliance; Great Britain has officially signed bilateral security guarantee agreements with Sweden and Finland. The European Union granted official membership candidate status to Ukraine, Moldova, Bosnia-Herzegovina and, later, Georgia; A new arms race began in the world - governments around the world began to review military doctrines, weapons stocks, military equipment and supply routes. Defense spending worldwide has risen to a record $2.24 trillion in 2022; Global instability has increased and the level of world security has decreased and many others [Геополитические..2023].

As a result of both the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war: Global economic growth has slowed as production is cut due to hostilities, sanctions and, in many cases, supply chain disruptions. Also, the limited resources flow not to the expansion of production, but to cover the expenses necessary for the war, humanitarian aid, creating proper conditions for the large masses of refugees, etc.; hindered the development of the world economy (qualitative perfection), since the funds for the implementation of large scientific and technical projects decrease, as a result of which the introduction of innovations is delayed; hindered the solution of joint global problems (energy, food, environmental, space utilization, development of green and circular economy, utilization of the world ocean, poverty and other global problems) due to the reduction of funds allocated for this purpose; It reduces the human capital (which is one of the most important resources for the development of the modern economy), due to the sacrifice of people and the deterioration of their well-being conditions (loss of housing and jobs, reduction of income, emergence of millions of refugees, etc.); worsens non-economic factors (mental state, culture, art, literature, sports, political relations), which have a great negative impact on today's economy; Actively formed: energy, food, supply chain, humanitarian and, in general, geopolitical crises with far-reaching consequences.

It is not known when the geopolitics will turn around and have a positive impact on the economy, since it is not known when the war will end.

One of the important features of collective global geopolitics is that there is a confrontation between ultra-liberals called neo-liberals and conservatives [Papava 2024]. However, the main thing is not to be radical, because radicalism suppresses the ability to perceive reality.

It should also be taken into account that there is still a clash of civilizations on earth, which also has a negative impact on all areas, including the economy.

According to some experts, another big risk comes from new technologies. Analysts called this risk a new "weapon of mass destruction" or disinformation through social media, which is an ideal ground for its spread [Как геополитическая... 2022]. 

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