კონფერენცია

∘ Marina Muchiashvili ∘
STATISTICAL ASSESSMENT OF RISKS TO GOVERNMENT DEBT SUSTAINABILITY

Summary

In order to assess the sustainability of government debt, changes in the structure of revenues payments of the state budget of Georgia are presented as a result of the pandemic. The impact of the mentioned changes on the dynamics of the ratio of government debt to GDP is shown. In addition, the dynamics of the government’s total and foreign debt in relation to GDP and the currency structure of government’s foreign debt portfolio are given. Strategic directions of public debt management are defined.

For main types of risks: refinancing risk, interest rate risk, currency risk and solvency rick have been identified.

It has been determined that risk management is an important factor of fiscal sustainability in the medium term.

Keywords: fiscal sustainability, government debt sustainability, Debt sustainability risks.

Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University Paata Gugushvili Institute of Economics International Scientific C O N F E R E N C E S "ECONOMY – XXI CENTURY"

E ISSN 2587 - 4691	∘ Marina Muchiashvili ∘ STATISTICAL ASSESSMENT OF RISKS TO GOVERNMENT DEBT SUSTAINABILITY Summary In order to assess the sustainability of government debt, changes in the structure of revenues payments of the state budget of Georgia are presented as a result of the pandemic. The impact of the mentioned changes on the dynamics of the ratio of government debt to GDP is shown. In addition, the dynamics of the government’s total and foreign debt in relation to GDP and the currency structure of government’s foreign debt portfolio are given. Strategic directions of public debt management are defined. For main types of risks: refinancing risk, interest rate risk, currency risk and solvency rick have been identified. It has been determined that risk management is an important factor of fiscal sustainability in the medium term. Keywords: fiscal sustainability, government debt sustainability, Debt sustainability risks.